Below is a rundown of the letter ‘R’ under Epstein's contacts. Last year, I wrote about letters A-C. You can check that out here (https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/cpis3n/a_brief_rundown_of_the_first_ten_pages_of_jeffrey/
I also wrote about letters D-F on July 5, 2020. You can check that out here (https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/hlrba8/a_notsobrief_rundown_of_letters_df_in_jeffrey/
I posted letters G-I on July 13, 2020. You can check that out here (https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/hqko0y/a_notsobrief_rundown_of_letters_gi_in_jeffrey/
I posted letters J-L on July 15, 2020. You can check that out here (https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/hrq9bg/a_notsobrief_rundown_of_letters_jl_of_jeffrey/
I posted letter M on July 20, 2020. You can check that out here (https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/huw0yt/a_notsobrief_rundown_of_the_letter_m_in_jeffrey/
I posted letters N-Q on July 27, 2020. You can check that out here (https://www.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/hyudbz/a_notsobrief_rundown_of_the_letters_nq_in_jeffrey/
). There are some misspelled names. Epstein entered their names like this.
I have bolded some of the more interesting connections and information, but there could be much more that I overlooked. I hope something here strikes an interest in someone and maybe we can get more investigations out of this. Please, if you know anything more about any of these people than what is presented here, post below. I am working off of the unredacted black book found here: https://www.coreysdigs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Jeffrey-Epsteins-Little-Black-Book-unredacted.pdf R Rachline, Nicholas: Best friend of Harvey Weinstein for over 30 years (https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/champs-elysees-film-festival-harvey-weinstein-334309), Rachline is a photographer. Rachline was also editor-in-chief of Above, a magazine dedicated to environmental protection, until its final issue a few years later. Contributors to the magazine included David de Rothschild, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Richard Branson, and other well-known figures. The biannual magazine was distributed by Conde Nast, which also owns Tatler, Vogue, Glamour, GQ, Vanity Fair, The New Yorker, and other influential publications. Jeffrey Epstein’s connections to Conde Nast publications - specifically Tatler and Vogue - continues to grow. Radziwill, Carole: Journalist for ABC News who also wrote a monthly column for Glamour (owned by Conde Nast). Carole was on the Real Housewives of New York City for 6 seasons. Carole was a good friend of Ghislaine Maxwell’s in the early 2000s. Maxwell even set her up with Prince Andrew after Carole’s husband, Prince Anthony Radziwill, died of cancer in 1999 (https://www.nickiswift.com/224731/the-truth-about-carole-radziwill-ghislaine-maxwell/). Radziwill was the nephew of Jacqueline Kennedy (JFK’s wife) and son of Polish Prince Stanislaw Albrecht Radziwill. He also served as best man at JFK Jr.’s wedding. There are several pictures of Carole and Ghislaine circulating which forced her to make a statement regarding her relationship with Maxwell and Epstein, whom she says she only met once. Rankin, Mr Gavin: The former Europe, Middle East, and Asia (EMEA) head of managed investments for Citi Private Bank. Now works for HSBC in a similar position. Has ties to the Royal Family. His restaurant, Bellamy’s, is the “only restaurant where the Monarch has ever dined at (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3504185/The-Queen-goes-dinner-Bellamy-s-restaurant.html).” The Queen even celebrated her 80th birthday there. Looking at the menu prices, it seems an odd choice considering it’s not some super high-end eatery. Rankin is also the heir apparent to the Rankin Baronetcy. Rappaport, Don: Co-founder and CEO of American List Counsel (ALC). The ALC tried to sell personal information on one-million kids (ages 14-17), along with their parents’ names, household incomes, and ethnicities to advertising companies (https://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-data-broker-personal-info-20190319-story.html) just last year. In other words, Mr. Rappaport runs a company that collects data on children and sells this information to whomever is willing to buy it. Who else is Rappaport sharing this information with?
Rattazzi, Isabel: Former model. Isabel is a Countess through her marriage to Lupo dei Conti Rattazzi. Her husband is the son of Susanna Agnelli, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Member of Parliament in Italy. The Agnelli family are controlling shareholders of Fiat Automobiles.
Raynes, Patty: Daughter of billionaire oil and entertainment mogul, Marvin Davis (1925-2004). Patty is a well-known socialite in the Hamptons. Raynes hung out in the same circles as Ghislaine and Epstein. Her husband is a real estate developer. Reardan, Kate: Editor of Tatler (another Tatler connection!) magazine from 2011-2017. Previously worked for Vanity Fair, another Conde Nast publication. Reardon was named one of London’s 1000 Most Influential People by the Evening Standard in 2007. She once dated Rupert Fairfax, aide to Prince Charles.
Reynal Michael: International investment banker.
Reynal, Miguel: There are a few Miguel Reynals. I believe it is the investment banker who once worked for Deutsche Bank because of the connection between Epstein and Deutsche Bank.
Reza, Ali: Founder of aviation company Freestream Aircraft Limited. Routinely deals with the wealthy and powerful (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/sanctioned-russian-tycoon-hands-back-his-private-jets.html
Ritblat, Nick Rebecca Willis: Nick is the son of John Ritblat, the former Chairman and CEO of British Land, one of the largest property development and investment companies in the UK. Nick has followed in his father’s footsteps, as he is also in the property development game.
Ritson Thomas Rupert: Descendent of James Bond author, Ian Fleming (https://www.henleystandard.co.uk/news/community/136373/james-bond-authors-descendents-win-1-2-million-claim-on-school-land.html
). Attends parties with royalty (https://www.tatler.com/gallery/royal-ascot-2000
). Brother of famous photographer, Hugo Rittson-Thomas, who supports The National Deaf Children’s Society. Rivers, Joan (and Melissa Rivers): Joan was a very popular comedian and actress who died in 2014 during surgery. Many think she was murdered because of her comments about Michelle Obama’s gender. Joan was friends with Ghislaine Maxwell and knew her since at least the early ‘90s (https://www.salon.com/2019/07/09/i-was-a-friend-of-jeffrey-epstein-heres-what-i-know/). Joan was also good friends with Prince Charles and had a tight relationship with the Royal Family, as she often attended Royal events (https://www.biography.com/news/joan-rivers-prince-charles-friendship). Melissa is her daughter. She has no discernible talent whatsoever. Robert, Joseph & Jill: Joseph E. Robert Jr. was an international real estate investor. Robert was known for his philanthropy. He donated $25 million (and raised $150 million more) to finance research on reducing the pain that children experience during surgery. He has been credited with raising nearly $1 billion for children’s charities ((https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/business/joseph-e-robert-jr-investor-in-real-estate-dies-at-59.html). Robert founded Fight for Children, a charity meant to support at-risk children in Washington D.C. (https://www.fightforchildren.org/joseph-e-robert-j). Robert also donated a lot of money to Children’s National Hospital (https://www.bizjournals.com/washington/news/2019/10/24/here-s-what-children-s-national-is-bringing-to-the.html), which has scholarships named in his honor. He died of brain cancer in 2011. Jill was his wife.
Roberts, Deb: 99% sure this is the TV journalist for ABC News and wife of famous weatherman/TV personality Al Roker.
Robilant, Mr Edmondo di Maya: Edmondo is a fine art dealer. His wife, Maya, is a University lecturer, journalist, and television presenter. Robin: Robin DeMetz is a personal friend of Epstein pal/alleged accomplice Naomi Campbell (https://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/30/nyregion/boldface-names-482374.html). She is married to Hasz DeMetz, who is in the diamond mining business.
Robinski, Kasia/Pod: Kasia is an investor and serves as director for several companies. No clue who/what Pod refers to.
Robinson, Jo & Lisa Shields: Lisa is the Vice President of Global Communications and Media Relations for the Council on Foreign Relations, where Epstein used to serve. No info on Joe, although I believe he is the gentleman on the left in this picture (https://www.patrickmcmullan.com/photo/0361960
). Rocksavage, David: The 7th Marquess of Cholmondeley and the Lord Great Chamberlain of the UK. He is a descendant of the Rothschild and Sassoon families through his grandmother, Sybil Sassoon. He is also the descendant of Britain’s first Prime Minister, Sir Robert Walpole. The Marquess doesn’t keep the best company. The Godfather of his twins bilked L’Oreal heiress, Liliane Bettencourt, out of £850 million in 2010 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1295083/L-Oreal-fraud-suspect-Marquess.html). He was convicted of ‘abuse of weakness’ in 2016. Rocksavage’s wife, Rose Hanbury, is the Marchioness of Cholmondeley. She is a patron of East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices (EACH) along with Kate Middleton, the Duchess of Cambridge, and other royalty. Last year, there were rumors that Rose Hanbury had an affair with Prince William, Prince Charles’s eldest son and husband of Kate Middleton (https://news.yahoo.com/6-things-know-rose-hanbury-164552520.html). Roedy, Bill: Former Vice President at HBO, former head honcho at MTV Europe, and Global Health Advisor. In 2018, Roedy was named Vice Chair of Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance (https://www.gavi.org/gavi-board-appoints-bill-roedy-as-vice-chair), which was founded in 2000 by… the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (https://www.gavi.org/our-alliance/about)! Roedy not only serves on the Council on Foreign Relations just like Epstein once did (Epstein preceded Roedy), but he also had connections to Robert Maxwell, Ghislaine’s father.
Rolfe, Gail: Freelance journalist and fashion editor who once worked for Tatler (again) and The Times
Ronson, Lisa: Gerald Ronson’s daughter (see below). Ronson, Mr & Mrs Gerald: British furniture and property development tycoon. Gerald is a big-time philanthropist. In addition to the number of Jewish groups he gives money to, Ronson also serves as Vice President of the National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children (NSPCC). a children’s charity that several others in Epstein’s ‘black book’ (Jemma Kidd, Tim Jeffries, Mary Glanville, Clare Hazell-Ivaegh, Ben Holland-Martin, Manilo Marocco) and Princess Margaret have served. The number of suspected pedophiles and child traffickers that are involved with the NSPCC is mindblowing. As if that weren’t enough, Gerald was also good friends with Greville Janner, ex-Leicester MP who was constantly accused of child abuse before his death, but was able to evade culpability due to police constantly bungling the evidence (https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/ex-leicester-mp-greville-janner-3869479). Gerald’s wife, Gail, is also a philanthropist of Jewish charities. Her first big event in 1983 was attended by Prince Charles and Princess Diana.
Rose, Wendy & Joe: Now divorced, Wendi and Joe are both real estate magnates in New York. Joe worked for Mayor Giuliani from 1993-2001. Rose, Charlie & Burden, Amanda: Charlie Rose is a (former) famous television journalist who hosted the eponymous talk show, Charlie Rose. Jeffrey Epstein and Charlie Rose were thick as thieves. In fact, Epstein (and his assistant) called Rose many times and would recommend potential young assistants for Charlie Rose to hire (https://nymag.com/intelligence2019/07/jeffrey-epstein-high-society-contacts.html). Epstein frequently lunched with and attended parties with Rose. Rose’s show was cancelled in 2017 when eight women came out and accused him of sexual harassment (https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/eight-women-say-charlie-rose-sexually-harassed-them--with-nudity-groping-and-lewd-calls/2017/11/20/9b168de8-caec-11e7-8321-481fd63f174d_story.html). Since then, 27 more women have accused Charlie Rose of sexual harassment (https://www.vulture.com/2018/05/charlie-rose-27-women-new-accusers-sexual-harassment.html), bringing the grand total to 35. Rose also served on the Council on Foreign Relations, although I am unable to find out if his time there coincided with Epstein’s. Charlie’s former love interest, Amanda, has worked for Bloomberg since 2002, first as director of the New York City Department of City Planning, then as chair of the City Planning Commission, and now as a principal at Bloomberg Associates, a consulting service.
Rosen, Andrew: Fashion designer.
Rosen, Denis & Sylvia: Dennis was a well-respected British scientist. Sylvia was his wife and co-writer of London Science
Rosencrantz, Ms Claudia: British television executive and journalist. She was Controller of Entertainment for ITV for over ten years. Voted one of Britain’s 50 most inspirational women in 2018 by the Daily Mail
Rosenfield, Donald: Movie producer. Former President of Merchant Ivory Productions from 1986-1998.
Rosenstein, Rob: Co-founder of Agoda. Similar to Expedia, Orbitz, Priceline, etc, Agoda provides its users with information on flights and hotels Rosenthal, Jane: Co-founder of the Tribeca Film Festival and Tribeca Productions film studio with Robert De Niro. Good friend of Ghislaine Maxwell (https://www.barefootpalmbeach.com/post/epstein) and Peggy Siegal (https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jane-rosenthal-and-peggy-siegal-attend-lunch-in-honor-of-news-photo/591348640), Epstein’s plug into New York celebrity society. Roth, Peter Thomas & Noreen: Peter Thomas Roth is the founder of the skin care and cosmetics company that bears his name. Roth graduated from Dalton school in 1975, where Epstein taught him during his senior year. Roth has lauded Epstein as a “brilliant teacher.” Epstein later served Roth’s tutor to prepare him for the Wharton School at Penn (http://www.virginislandsdailynews.com/ap/how-epstein-went-from-teaching-to-wall-street/article_59c0234e-cf7d-59c3-96a7-bb8a04dacaa8.html). Roth admits to going to Epstein’s mansion once, although he says only middle-aged people were present (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/12/nyregion/jeffrey-epstein-dalton-teacher.html). This story would be more plausible if Epstein didn’t have eight phone numbers, two addresses, and an email address listed under Roth’s name. It would also be more believable if they didn’t live two blocks away from each other in NYC. Noreen is Peter’s ex-wife. She serves as Managing Director of his company. Rothchild, Jessica: Actually Jessica de Rothschild, daughter of billionaire financier Sir Evelyn de Rothschild (https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/prince-charles-prince-of-wales-speaks-with-with-sir-evelyn-news-photo/467631086?adppopup=true) and Lynn Forester de Rothschild, close friend of Hillary Clinton. Jessica used to be a writer for Tatler magazine, which Epstein is deeply connected to through his contacts. Runs in the same circles as Epstein and Maxwell. Rothchild, Hannah: The eldest child of Jacob Rothschild (https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/lord-jacob-rothschild-attends-the-launch-of-the-stella-news-photo/972453692?adppopup=true), Hannah is a businesswoman and was the first female Chair of the Board of Trustees of the National Gallery in London. In 2018, Hannah took over as Chair of Yad Hanadiv (https://www.yadhanadiv.org.il/about-yad-hanadiv), a pro-Israel Rothschild organization/charity which has been running in its current form since 1958. The actual history dates back to the late 1800s when Baron Edmond de Rothschild sought to “support Jewish revival in Palestine.” Yad Hanadiv is responsible for building the Knesset (Israeli parliament), the Supreme Court, and is currently working on the New National Library in Israel. Hannah is also a Trustee of the Rothschild Foundation, which has been a long-time patron of… the NSPCC children’s charity (https://www.nspcc.org.uk/globalassets/documents/annual-reports/nspcc-annual-report-2006.pdf), where countless other suspected pedophiles and pedophile sympathizers find themselves orbiting.
Rothenburg, Rich: Former portfolio manager and researcher at Deutsche Bank, which was recently fined $150 million for ignoring Epstein’s suspicious transactions (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/business/jeffrey-epstein-deutsche-bank-fine/index.html
Rotherwick, Tania & Robin: Tania is an old friend of Ghislaine Maxwell (https://www.tatler.com/article/where-on-earth-is-ghislaine-maxwell
) and ex-girlfriend of Prince Andrew. She is also the sister-in-law of Mark Carney, who served as the Governor of the Bank of England from 2013-2020. Her ex-husband, Robin Cayzer, is the 3rd Baron Rotherwick. He has served in the House of Lords since 1996. Rothschild, Edouard de: Son of Guy de Rothschild, who was the great-great-grandson of Mayer Amschel Rothschild, the person responsible for founding the family’s banking empire in the 18th century. Edouard was head of the family’s Paris-based Rothschild & Cie Banque from 1987-2004, when he stepped down. Rothschild, Evelyn de: Businessman and banker supposedly worth $20 billion, although many think it’s actually a lot more. In addition to poking Prince Charles (https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/prince-charles-prince-of-wales-speaks-with-with-sir-evelyn-news-photo/467631086?adppopup=true), Evelyn has also asserted his dominance of many companies and corporations by acting as Chairman or Director of The Economist (1972-1989), De Beers (1977-1994), IBM, and many others. Evelyn has served as Queen Elizabeth II’s financial advisor for decades (https://www.jewoftheweek.net/2017/11/29/jews-of-the-week-evelyn-de-rothschild-jacob-rothschild/). Evelyn’s wife, Lynn Forester de Rothschild, was completely enamored with Epstein. Before his death, Epstein claimed that he loaned Lynn money when she was going through a divorce in the early ‘90s, before she became a Rothschild (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/the-mystery-of-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-enabler). Lynn was responsible for setting up an introduction between Epstein and Bill Clinton in 1995 (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8362601/Bill-Clinton-confessed-Jeffrey-Epstein-slept-Monica-Lewinsky.html). Alan Dershowitz wrote an essay earlier this month where he opens by saying that he was introduced to Ghislaine Maxwell by Evelyn and Lynn de Rothschild (https://spectator.us/ghislaine-maxwell-know-jeffrey-epstein-alan-dershowitz/). Ghislaine lived in a NYC townhouse that Lynn (allegedly) sold to one of Epstein’s companies for more than $8 million below market value (https://www.businessinsider.com/ghislaine-maxwell-jeffrey-epstein-father-real-estate-assets-foundation-2019-8#until-2016-maxwell-lived-in-a-5-million-new-york-townhouse-bought-by-a-company-with-the-same-address-as-epsteins-business-office-10). While it is widely believed that Ghislaine introduced Epstein to Prince Andrew, there are conflicting accounts that claim that Lynn was the one who introduced the two (https://nypost.com/2020/07/11/ghislaine-maxwell-didnt-introduce-epstein-to-prince-andrew-pal/). The Rothschilds are also extremely close with the Clintons. They even spent part of their honeymoon in the White House during Bill’s presidency back in 2000 (https://www.politico.eu/article/economist-magazine-shareholders-british-commerce-rothschild/). They remain close to this day, as both Evelyn and Lynn have donated and contributed heavily to Hillary’s past campaigns.
Roumugere, Caroline: Carolyn is a jeweller who makes unique pieces inspired by her upbringing in Kenya (http://www.carolynroumeguere.com/about
). Her father was a close friend of artist Salvador Dali. Royle, Hon Lucinda: Wife of Rupert Ponsonby, 7th Baron de Mauley, a British politician. Daughter of Anthony Royle, Baron Fanshawe of Richmond, a Member of Parliament for Richmond, Surrey (1959-1983) and businessman. Royle coincidentally stepped down as MP shortly after the Elm Guest House scandal (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/elm-guest-house-abuse-scandal-1857494) became known to the public. It turns out that British politicians and other high-ranking members of society were sexually abusing children. All of this happened in Richmond, where Royle served as MP. Of course, nobody has been charged. Oh yeah, the owner of Elm Guest House, Carole Kasir, who supposedly kept a list of Elm Guest House attendees, died under murky circumstances (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/secret-files-prove-carole-kasir-11506791). Anthony Royle also famously sided with Michael Heseltine over Margaret Thatcher during the 1985 Westland Affair. Heseltine appeared earlier in the black book (check out the G-I thread for more info). Heseltine invested in Conservative Parliament member Harvey Proctor’s business after Proctor was forced to resign after it was revealed he had sexual relationships with and took nude pictures of male prostitutes aged 17-21 at his home (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/members-interests-top-tories-lose-on-proctors-shop-the-retailer-1445666.html). At the time, it was illegal to have same-sex relations with prostitutes under the age of 21.
Rucellai, Natalie: PR specialist for Rocco Forte Hotels. Used to do PR for Giorgio Armani. The Rucellai family married into the Medici family in 1461. Although the Rucellais are not a Black Nobility family, the Medici family certainly is.
Rudnick, Della: This is actually Della Rounick, the former CEO of the fashion company HE-RO Group. She is now an artist and sculptor.
Russel, Michelle: A senior executive in asset management. Rust, Marina & Ian: Marina is a former contributing editor at Vogue (again) magazine. She is the granddaughter of Marshall Field III, an investment banker and heir to the Marshall Field department store fortune. Rust often attended the same parties as Ghislaine Maxwell. She is photographed here with Ghislaine, Tom Ford, and Countess Sally Albemarle (https://www.patrickmcmullan.com/photo/0010136), all of whom are in Epstein’s black book. She is also friends with Lauren du Pont of the billionaire family (https://www.newyorksocialdiary.com/traveling-down-memory-lane/). Her husband, Ian Connor is an investment banker at Lazard Freres, a bank that has repeatedly come up during research of Epstein’s contacts. Marina and Ian literally live around the block from Epstein’s NYC mansion.
Rustow, Tim: Uncertain, but my best guess would be the portfolio manager who is the son of Dankwart Rustow, a famous expert in political science and sociology, and brother of historian Marina Rustow. Rutland Duke and Duchess: David Manners, the 11th Duke of Rutland, is the owner of Belvoir Castle. His wife, Emma Manners (nee Watkins), the Duchess of Rutland, is pictured here in front of the castle (https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/emma-manner-duchess-of-rutland-during-the-launch-event-for-news-photo/1206547435?adppopup=true), enjoying her afternoon tea. She runs the commercial activities at Belvoir Castle. Manners has been (allegedly) entangled with Ghislaine Maxwell since the 1980s. Now for the controversial stuff. The Duke and Duchess hired former MP Harvey Proctor in 2003 to be their private secretary. Proctor is a disgraced MP who was forced to resign in 1987 after it was revealed that he had sexual relationships with and took nude pictures of male prostitutes aged 17-21 at his home (source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/members-interests-top-tories-lose-on-proctors-shop-the-retailer-1445666.html). At the time, it was illegal to have same-sex relations with prostitutes under the age of 21. There is a wonderful and brief expose here (https://theneedleblog.wordpress.com/2015/01/09/blackmail-the-maxwells-harvey-proctor-and-the-marquis-of-granby/) that builds a strong relationship between Proctor, Manners, and Ghislaine Maxwell, and explains why Manners would hire a disgraced pedophile as his personal secretary, which I will quickly sum up: Robert Maxwell’s newspapers were publishing damaging pieces on Harvey Proctor in 1986, when allegations of his sexual improprieties first started to leak. A threat was made by a caller who said if Maxwell continued running these stories on Proctor, they would reveal that Maxwell’s daughter, Ghislaine, was having an affair with the “son of a Duke.” This would be David Manners, who was not yet Duke of Rutland since his father (the 10th Duke of Rutland) was still alive. Manners dismissed the allegation as “nonsense,” but went on to hire Proctor in 2003, three years after Proctor’s shirtmaking business was liquidated. Some may say that Proctor would have the most to gain by threatening Robert Maxwell back in the ‘80s and that maybe he used that information to find a job with Manners once his shirt business went belly-up. This is all speculation, of course. Ruttenberg, Eric & Perri: Eric is the co-managing partner at Tinicum, the private investment firm his father founded in 1974. His wife, Perri (nee Peltz), is a former broadcast journalist who worked for NBC, ABC (she worked on the show, 20/20, hosted by pedophile protector and friend of Ghislaine, Barbara Walters), and CNN from 1987-2002. Peltz is a member of the “Tennis Girls” (insert roll eyes emoji), a group that includes Epstein helper Peggy Siegal, Tory Burch, Christina Cuomo (Chris Cuomo’s wife), Ariadne Calvo-Platero, Kitty Sherrill, and Renee Rockefeller (https://pagesix.com/2011/12/23/tough-enough-for-jennet/). Everyone in that group is listed in Epstein’s black book except for Sherrill and Rockefeller. Coincidentally, Perri attended Dalton, the exclusive private high school, in the mid-late ‘70s when Epstein taught there.
Ryder, Mr Nicholas: Uncertain. Some info found but couldn’t confirm either way.
Good morning from the UK.
Virus Statistics as of 9am UK time today
|Region ||Today ||Yesterday ||% change |
|Global ||142,320 ||132,567 ||+7.4% |
|China ||81,021 ||80,981 ||+0.5% |
|Italy ||17,660 ||15,113 ||+16.9% |
|Iran ||11,364 ||10,075 ||+12.8% |
|South Korea ||8,086 ||7,979 ||+1.3% |
|Spain ||4,231 ||2,965 ||+42.7% |
|France ||3,640 ||2,860 ||+27.3% |
|Germany ||3,062 ||2,369 ||+29.3% |
|USA ||2,174 ||1,663 ||+30.7% |
|Switzerland ||1,125 ||858 ||+31.1% |
|Netherlands ||804 ||614 ||+30.9% |
|UK ||802 ||594 ||+35.0% |
|Denmark ||801 ||674 ||+18.8% |
|Sweden ||775 ||620 ||+25.0% |
|Norway ||750 ||489 ||+53.4% |
All other countries with under 750
identified infections not listed (yesterday's threshold was 500). Total countries infected worldwide = 129, an increase from yesterday of 6. Source: The WHO dashboard (Link
), except for USA where I'm using the John Hopkins University dashboard (Link
). (Personal note: Western countries infection counts are increasing each day much faster than Asian countries but that may be due to cultural differences or it may be that they're doing my testing, if anyone can shed light on this please do)
Reminder, these are identified case counts and medical experts are reporting this virus has a long incubation period with people being infections despite displaying no symptoms; the true infection figures are likely to be much higher.
As of today, 71,694 people have recovered, according to figures from the Johns Hopkins University
Note: The new infections count in South Korea has been dropping steadily for the past week - you can see it for yourself on the WHO website if you click on the Republic of Korea on the right (not the map) and view the resulting chart that appears on the left.
Virus specific news (sources: Guardian live blog, Al-Jazeera live blog, CNN live blog)
WHO Director says Europe now the epicentre on twitter-
“Europe has now become the epicenter of the pandemic, with more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined, apart from China,” World Health Organization (WHO) director, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has tweeted. “Our message to countries continues to be: you must take a comprehensive approach to fight. Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all,” he said.
US Hospitals may face difficulties during coronavirus pandemic, experts say -
CNN reports (link
) that some health experts are warning that hospitals are not prepared to manage the anticipated number of patients, if there is a large spike in severe cases. "If we have a large spike of cases -- no, American hospitals are not going to be able to handle it," said Dr. Ashish Jha
, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. CNN obtained one estimate presented to the American Hospital Association by Dr. James Lawler
, at the University of Nebraska Medical Center on March 5 predicting that over the next two months, 4.8 million patients will be admitted to hospital because of coronavirus, including 1.9 million stays in the intensive care unit. "This estimation is just that, an estimation," Lawler said in an emailed statement. "However it is based upon the best epidemiological modeling and opinion of experts in pandemics and respiratory viral disease." Lawler's report estimates 4.8 million patients could be admitted to hospitals in the coronavirus pandemic -- but the US doesn't even have 1 million beds. According to the American Hospital Association, there are a total of 924,107 staffed beds across all the hospitals in the United States. West Virginia is the only state to have not reported any cases.
CDC chief: Certain materials critical to coronavirus tests 'now are in short supply' -
Supplychaindive reports (Link
) that CDC Director Redfield's public acknowledgment of the shortage came a day after FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn's testimony before a House appropriations subcommittee in which he warned
of "pressures" on the supply of reagents for commercial and public health labs. Qiagen, a major supplier of RNA extraction kits, confirmed to MedTech Dive on Thursday that "extraordinary demand for coronavirus testing workflows" is challenging the company's capacity to supply certain RNA kits used for SARS-CoV-2-related LDTs. A spokesman for Qiagen said it is ramping up production at its manufacturing sites in Germany and Spain. Nonetheless, the American Society for Microbiology, which represents thousands of public health and clinical lab microbiologists, warned "there are limits on how rapidly companies can realistically accelerate production of the necessary reagents" and "increased demand for testing has the potential to exhaust supplies needed to perform the testing itself."
Apple is closing all retail outlets outside Greater China in an effort to reduce exposure to its employees -
A letter from the CEO Tim Cook detailing the steps the company is taking is available on Apple's website here
Contrary to Trump’s claim, Google is not building a nationwide coronavirus screening website -
Theverge reports (link
) that Google is not
working with the US government in building a nationwide website to help people determine whether and how to get a novel coronavirus test, despite what President Donald Trump said in the course of issuing an emergency declaration for the coronavirus pandemic. Instead, a much smaller trial website made by another division of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, is going up. It will only be able to direct people to testing facilities in the Bay Area.
Other virus news in brief (same major media sources as above) -
- Inditext, the owner of Zara is closing its stores in Spain. The Spanish stores contribute about 18% of the group's total sales.
- Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said on Saturday it would ban all international flights into the Kingdom for two weeks in response to the coronavirus outbreak.
- New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Saturday that everyone entering the country from midnight on Sunday must self isolate for 14 days in an effort to contain the spread of the new coronavirus. Pacific island countries (which currently have no cases) are exempt. Cruise ships will not be allowed to dock until the end of June. Separately, the memorial for the Christchurch terrorist attack has been cancelled (it was expected to draw considerable amounts of people from around the world).
- Stocks of coronavirus test kits have run out in parts of Australia -- and supplies elsewhere are running low, the government's chief medical officer has warned.
- Netflix has paused film and TV show production in the US and Canada for two weeks.
- Other TV shows also suspended include Ellen DeGeneres' daytime talk show, “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah”, “Lights Out with David Spade”, “Last Week Tonight”, “Real Time with Bill Maher” and “Jimmy Kimmel Live”.
- The Pentagon has banned all US domestic travel for everyone affiliated with the Department of Defense unless mission critical.
- UK budget airline Jet2 has cancelled all flights to Spain, Balearic Islands and Canary islands with immediate effect. At time of writing 7 of their flights that are airborne have all turned round and are heading back to the UK according to Flightradar24 tweets.
- A handful of fights break out in US stores over panic buying (Source: Fox news link
Air freight rates start to surge as carriers unveil plans for the transatlantic -
As I suggested yesterday, The Loadstar says (Link
) that air freights are starting to surge for trans-Atlantic cargo shipments due to President Trump's announcement that visitors from 26 Schengen zone countries will be banned for 30 days. Some carriers have promised existing bookings will be honoured for between two days and a week, after which there will be rolling bookings, while forwarders are talking of being quoted from €6.50 per kilo to £10 per kg out of the UK into the US, which is “unheard of”. Geodis announced this morning it is launching a four-times-a-week round-trip service next week. It will operate from Liege to Chicago, with connecting services to US and European gateways. Dachser said it was extending its chartered air freight service between Frankfurt and China. From Monday, it will offer round trips to the US, Latin America and Frankfurt, to Shanghai. (Personal note: the problem is that very few cargo planes fly transatlantic because there are 550 passenger flights each way every day and they can carry cargo - as a result there is huge carrying capacity under normal conditions which is why airfreight rates are rapidly rising. If the UK and/or Ireland also get banned, it will only exacerbate the situation and drive rates higher still
IAG CEO pens a letter to employees: "The survival of British Airways" -
Alex Cruz, the CEO of IAG which is the parent group which owns BA and Iberia has written a letter to all employees says the BBC (link
). "We can no longer sustain our current level of employment and jobs would be lost - perhaps for a short term, perhaps longer term" he wrote. British Airways was suspending routes and parking planes in a way they had "never had to do before" and Cruz underlined the severity of BA's position by telling staff "not to underestimate the seriousness of this for our company". The article also points out that multiple other major airlines are also in the same position and are beginning to announce flight suspensions and significant job cuts.
60% of U.S. Manufacturers Say Business Has Been Impacted by Coronavirus but this may be the beginning of reshoring away from China -
ThomasNet has a report detailing the impact so far on US manufacturing (requires free subscription, link
). 34% of survey respondents expect business to decline, while 13% say they expect their business to grow as a result of this outbreak. 46% of suppliers report that their shipping and logistics have been disrupted, 35% report incidents of offshore factory suspension and/or production restrictions, and 8% report that the coronavirus outbreak has caused the cost of goods to surge. The report adds that there has been more than a 1,000% increase month over month in sourcing activity for hazmat suits, masks, and respirators. “This event is putting a lot of pressure on Indian and Mexican sources as OEMs and Tier Ones seek alternative to Chinese sources," said a custom manufacturer in Wisconsin. "If this sustains, it should result in some reshoring." “We've long aimed to be a domestic alternative to Chinese manufacturers, anyhow," a Washington-based agricultural OEM shared. "If anything, this just further asserts that we are on the right path.”
How coronavirus is upsetting the US blood supply chain -
Live Science has a piece
written by Professor Anna Nagurney. Our nation's blood supply is essential to our health care security. Blood transfusions are integral parts of major surgeries. Blood is used in the treatment of diseases, particularly sickle cell anemia and some cancers. Blood is needed for victims who have injuries caused by accidents or natural disasters. Every day, the U.S. needs 36,000 units of red blood cells, 7,000 units of platelets, and 10,000 units of plasma. The problem is that multiple blood donation centres are closing and blood products are perishable, in some cases only lasting as short as 5 days. She urges people to continue donating blood if at all possible, noting that blood donations have dried up in China.
S&P Global warns the global coronavirus spread may paralyze apparel supply chain for months -
Although clothing companies have a large exposure to China, they have so far managed to limit the impact, industry observers say. Even before COVID-19 struck China, many businesses were shifting manufacturing to Vietnam, Cambodia and Bangladesh due to rising labor costs and uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade war. The problem is that these new manufacturers are still reliant on a large percentage of their raw materials coming from China (in Vietnam's case it's more than 50%). Hong Kong-listed Lever Style Corp., which manufactures for brands including Paul Smith and Hugo Boss, has set up a major production base in Vietnam. Executive Chairman Stanley Szeto said in an interview that although their factories have yet to experience any meaningful delays, it is not easy to find supply alternatives beyond China for factories that are based in Southeast Asia. "There may be a gradual shift in the supply chain. That gradual is going to be very gradual," said Szeto, adding that while raw materials from China are not necessarily more price competitive, the country's scale, capacity and fast turnover is unmatched by any alternatives.
Workers in Cambodia and Myanmar feel coronavirus fall-out -
) says that material shortages caused by the China shutdown last month have begun impacting garment manufacturers in the two countries with one source claiming that 5,000 workers have already lost their jobs. Cambodian factories who have suspended operations are obliged to pay workers 60% of the minimum wage, and the Cambodian government has offered affected employers to pay 20% of that. During the suspension, workers are to receive training conducted by the Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training.
India: Coronavirus causing severe disruption in supply chain, logistics -
The Week (weekly magazine in India) says (link
) that whilst many Indian firms will have had a good supply of stock to last them over the normal outages associated with the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday period, these stocks are now running out with a report by Kotak Securities highlighting likely impacts to the automotive, consumer durables and certain non-durables sectors. The report says that the prolonged shutdown of manufacturing units in China will also limit the availability of key components for automobile OEMs as well as spare-parts in replacement markets, consumer durable companies (refrigerators, washing-machine, electrical appliances) and non-durables like adhesives, paints and the like.
As input disruptions loom, Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal calls for industries to meet
- the Hindu business line (owned by The Hindu newspaper) quotes the minister as saying that the threat of input supply disruption from China is becoming very real for pharmaceutical, electronics and automobile industries due to the coronavirus-induced shutdown of factories in China. Indian Missions abroad as a result have been asked to explore the possibility of sourcing raw material for Indian production in their respective countries. The minister mentioned that the sectors hurt by the coronavirus should be present at the meeting so that there is a better idea of the extent to which they are getting impacted. Simultaneously, the Commerce Ministry has been identifying items where Indian manufacturers can increase their production to step up exports for filling the supply gaps left by Chinese exporters.
Good news section
Major UK supermarket chain Morrisons moves to support supply chain through coronavirus outbreak
- CityAM (a UK business newspaper) says Link
that the supermarket has decided to make immediate payments to smaller businesses and re-classify suppliers to help 1,000 more firms as it moves to protect its supply chain from the impact of coronavirus. The grocer will also temporarily scrap its 14 day payment terms and pay small suppliers as soon as an invoice is received.
This particular post is an inspiration of many various articles that I have specifically searched and looked for on the internet.
To begin with, I must give credit to the sources and reference materials that I tapped on. First and foremost, the originating idea for this post came into being when I happened to read an article by Niall Ferguson, a British Historian, whose brilliant article “A World without Power” I came across quite by accident on the website of the Foreign Affairs magazine. In the article, Mr Ferguson described a world where the US as a whole pulls back military forces from outside the US and disengages in a massive way from the rest of the world. The danger, as described in the article, is not a multi-polar world where the EU or China steps up to share the throne of ‘world power’, but instead, a world where nearly all major powers are in full retreat, leading to a ‘apolar world’. In this apolar world, the world reverts back to a new dark age as globalisation goes into sharp reversal, and a sharp increase in maritime piracy and conflict zones would result in a drastic drop of maritime trade and air travel. Here is the hyperlink to the article: https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/27/a-world-without-powe
I was intrigued by the article. In this modern age, we have technology. My default assumption, in the past, was that it is not possible to end globalisation completely. The technologies that enables cheaper and faster transportation and communications have spread too widely to disappear completely, and that, by itself, would mean that the world would be held connected in some way. But after reading and re-reading the article, I realised that a heavily de-globalised world would still be one where the internet, smartphones, laptop, automobiles and jet airliners still exist but the geo-political situation has changed a lot.
In doing so, I started to do a lot of research on the internet. I found many useful articles, which are: https://www.salon.com/2010/12/06/america_collapse_2025/ https://gnseconomics.com/2019/01/11/the-scenarios-of-the-collapse/ https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/dawn-new-dark-age
The Stratfor article was interesting because it highlights the Bronze Age collapse. Reading up on the Wikipedia page, it also highlighted that instead of just one or a few reasons for the collapse, what we have instead if a General Systems collapse, where inter-connections and inter-depenency between the various kingdoms, empires, dynasties and economies of Near East, Asia Minor, the Aegean region, North Africa, Caucasus, Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean were so close and so tightly held together that problems spread like a virus.
The result was a rapid collapse in the various civilisations, with a sudden drop in population levels and trade. Cities vanished and the population of urban settlers moved back to the countryside to survive on subsistence farming.
I would like to emphasize that the this is not a forecast or a prediction in any way, shape or form. I am NOT saying that any of these will eventually happen. This is merely a worst-case possible scenario, resulting from systemic collapse of the global economy if it should happen.
For a start, there would be no Armageddon. The decrease in living standards would come eventually. However, technology, especially the internet will survive. Shortage of food supplies but basic food staples will remain stable and consistent. However, nations that already experienced food riots in the past decade will go through the same thing all over again.
Based on this World Bank webpage, countries like Argentina, Cameroon, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, and Tunisia were highlighted.
Just to make it absolutely clear, there will NOT be anything remotely resembling ‘Mad Max’. Technology like automobiles, laptops, smartphones, the internet and air travel would still be around. What has changed is the global geopolitical situation on a massive scale.
Just to be clear, a major geopolitical shift by itself is not enough to send the world into a new dark age. Just to give an actual real-life example, the Great Depression of the early 1930s was a severe economic disaster but the world survived and eventually recovered.
Likewise, World War 2 affected virtually every single country on earth, be it directly or indirectly, but the world went nowhere near a dark age.
The oil embargo by Arab nations bought a severe economic shock but the world economy still grind on.
The first Gulf War still saw the rest of the world going on as per normal.
The Arab spring bought vast changes to the political landscapes of North Africa. Two middle east nations, Syria and Yemen, are now firmly in the category of failed states, while most North African nations are already failing states. Yet, events of the Arab Spring are event that appears on TV screens for residents of the economic tigers of Asia-Pacific region.
Hence, even the worst and most extreme global recessions, oil embargoes, wars and political disorder by themselves are not enough to send the world into a dark age.
Yet, for nations closer to the epic center of these crises, it may feel like the world is ending. Take for example, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which many Asian countries were hard hit, especially Indonesia. The Indonesian currency collapsed to historically unseen lows, food prices shot through the roof and unemployment surged to record highs. Within weeks, the capital city Jakarta was consumed by an orgy of violence, rioting, and looting by at least tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of looters and rioters, while the military and police did nothing as they were simply outnumbered. Sectarian violence broke out throughout the archipelago, and there were very real fears that the entire country will balkanize, leading to civil wars and refugees numbers in millions flooding the rest of South-East asia. There was no war with an external party, just economic chaos, and yet, it devasted the entire region. But the rest of the world was fine.
So imagine, then this scenario, in alternate reality where while at the height of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, for some reason (pick your own imaginable cause) all members of OPEC immediately halt any and all oil and gas production, and they are joined as well by Azerbaijian, Brunei, all the central Asian nations. Not a single drop of oil or gas even leaves these countries. Meanwhile, Russia launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine. In our real world, the US government, and other nations, took measures to fight the GFC and though it has ended, we are still feeling the after-effects.
In this scenario, where the world is already dealing with the collapse of the economy and oil supply, could the world still deal effectively with military conflict in eastern Europe?
Hence, I draw up this scenario where ALL of the below-mentioned leading causes must occur within a few weeks of each other. Every event must occur together in a roughly 1.5 to 2 year period and their ripple effects would cascade on each other, creating massive systemic breakdown of the global civilization. If even just one event DOES NOT occur, then the world still has a chance of averting a ‘New Dark Age’.
Event 1: the US economy goes into deep recession. The cause can be anything, from falling house prices to a major Wall Street bank going into sudden bankruptcy. Irrational Panic seizes the world’s financial markets and the US, realizing that it is now both a major food producer and shale oil producer, decides that it can live without the world. It still maintain military bases in the Middle East, Asia and Africa but only with token forces. Military spending is cut and it becomes reluctant to intervene with the rest of the world’s security problems.
Event 2: Middle East Oil and Gas supply stops: The Middle East gulf nations of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar are no longer able to export any oil and gas. The cause could be civil war in Saudi Arabia due to sectarian violence between the Sunni majority and Shiite minority; or maybe Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain launches a war against Qatar, and Turkey and Iran pulls in on Qatar side. Or there is a militant coup in any one of these nations and the first order of business is to mine the Strait of Hormuz. Thanks to the shale revolution, this would have made the USA one of the largest oil exporters in the world.
Event 3: A mega-hurricane, the likes of which have never been seen before hits Louisiana, which results in the shutting down of nearly all oil refineries in the Louisiana area.
For the scenario to proceed, all of the above 3 events must occur together at the same time. After which, thanks to the ripple effects of the above-mentioned 3 events, the following events will occur.
Event 4: China’s economy comes for a very hard landing as Event 1 meant export orders dry up, foreign and local manufacturers in China start closing down factories in China. Event 2 meant that oil and gas supply sharply reduces industrial activity within China. Unemployment surges in the private sector, however, it would be restrained. The CCP will issue orders, under threat of arrest, that SOEs and large businesses are not to engage in any form of retrenchments, and that banks and financial institutions are to carry out lending as per normal. However, the CCP will remain tightly in control of the country. There will be no break-up of the country. While riots increase by a hundredfold all across the country, driven by peasants angered by the rural-urban inequality, political centralization remains firm.
The CCP, in order to distract the local populace with military action overseas, declares the entire South China Sea (SCS) an ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone), with demands that any and all sea vessels and airplanes entering the SCS must receive permission from the PLA or be shot down or sank.
This disrupts global trade. Cargo ships become reluctant to travel through the SCS, making the economic crisis in China worse, while the US, already dealing from the effects of an economic crisis and oil crisis, is unable to intervene. Vietnam and Indonesian navies, attempting to asset that the seas of ASEAN are international waters, sail warships right through the SCS, leading to minor skirmishes.
The upper and wealthy elites of China, facing massive devaluation of the Reminbi, engaged in massive capital flight. In a panicked move to stem capital flight, the Chinese authorities close the border with Hong Kong and Macau, in the view that the Macau casinos and Hong Kong’s banks were part of the capital flight movement. Hong Kong’s stock market crashes and has to be closed indefinitely.
Event 5: EU total collapse. With oil prices skyrocketing worldwide to Event 2 and 3, Russia senses an opportunity. It launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine and Georgia, and sends troops to seize and occupy Norway’s offshore oil drilling platforms, in a swift overnight move. At the same time, it cuts off all oi and gas exports unless the EU recognizes the annexation of Ukraine, Georgia and Norway’s oil fields. NATO is unable to respond effectively as the US is distracted. The Euro crashes and rapidly devalues. The countries of the Southern Europe, such as Spain and Italy, having elected far-right governments, and smelling blood in the water, announced their withdrawal from the EU and reinstatement of their own currencies. This sets off a chain reaction where the Euro keeps sinking in value, forcing several EU members to reinstate their own currencies. The EU as a political entity remains in existence with over 20 members, but is severely weakened. The Euro as a currency has gone extinct, but the customs union itself has remained.
Event 6: the Arab spring happens again, this time all over North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Civil wars break out all over North Africa and Central Africa, and with no outside intervention possible, the violence spreads. South Africa and the Coastal states of East Africa managed to hold it together but closed their borders off.
Event 7: Due to the influences of Event 1 to 6, the economies of Latin America are hit hard. The drug cartels and gangs of Mexico and the other central American states, sensing weakness, form alliances to launch coordinated attacks on hundreds of government buildings and police stations, in an attempt to force the authorities to the negotiating table for amnesty deals. Fearing the worst, Mexico’s cabinet over-reacts and evacuate to Miami. A provisional military government rapidly crushes the cartels and gangs, but having tasted power, are unwilling to return to civilian rule. Loyal factions within the military launch a counter-attack to restore civilian rule. Mexico breaks out into civil war.
Events 4 to 7 carry their own momentum and the pace pickups. At this stage, the US remains untouched, because even though it is still suffering from the worst economic crisis it has ever undergone, it is still a major world power and has total oil and food independence. But even so, problems start to appear.
Event 8: Because of event 7, tens of millions of refugees flow in from Central America to the Southern US. From the Carribean, thousands of boats, carrying refuges stream towards New Orleans and Florida. The US military finally closes down the border for good. Deportations and expulsions now occur at an all-time high, using force at the barrel of a gun.
Continental USA: The USA will be far better able than nearly all other countries to deal with the ‘New Dark Age’. However, pockets of chaos and disorder would be present. The US does not have to worry about energy shortages (due to shale revolution) or food crisis (due to its vast agricultural farms in the mid-west). In fact, the US will be a net food exporter to the rest of the struggling world. However, it will face severe water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change. There would be some instability in the US economy. However, manufacturing may actually shift back into the US, as the rest of the world isn’t producing anymore consumer goods. However, rapid chain effects would strangle the recovering in manufacturing in the embryo stage.
The biggest impact would be on the US financial markets. For a short period of time, there would be an initial rush of foreign capital into the US, as governments and foreign investors worldwide seek a safe haven asset, which would be US based equities and treasuries but this would eventually slow down to a mere trickle. With much of the world economy fragmented, foreign countries would lack the capital to continue to buy US treasuries. Those whom could afford to do so would simply focus purely on physical gold.
Note: in the real world, most US debt (in the form of treasuries), are actually held by local US investors, and US companies. However, a drastic drop in foreign buyers, without local buyers making up for the gap in demand, may send future payments on US treasuries into default.
Facing a default on US treasuries, this would result in massive budget deficits. The US government will halt all social welfare payments and the supply of food stamps would stop completely. In order to cover the widening deficit, the government would impose higher taxes. However, rising inflation from a rapidly devaluing US dollar may cause ripple effects on businesses and consumers alike, leading to lower spending by both businesses and consumers, leading to lower revenue for businesses and lower salaries for everyone. Unemployment may actually return on a massive scale, in the double digits. The American government would increasingly focus on defense needs and humanitarian concerns closer to home. Rapidly deteriorating states in Central America (from El Salavador to Guatemala), and the disappearance of government control in the rural areas of Mexico, will mean the US government will spend time and money to construct an actual hard concrete wall alongside the entire US-Mexico border, in record time.
However, failing states in Latin America may send as much as over 30 million refugees or more (over a period of 5 years) streaming over the border into the US, overwhelming the border. Vast refugee “tent cities, each comprising as much as a 100,000 people, appear all over the southern US. All of which will result in the straining of public services.
The collapse in public services in the various states would see the crime rate in US soaring by a hundredfold.
US maritime trade alongside the Caribbean Sea will be disrupted as piracy returns in a big way, with pirate warlords controlling fleets of hundreds of speedboats, each consisting of a dozen guys with AK-47s attacking cargo ships and tankers. Florida-based tourist cruises will completely halt.
The US has abandoned its role as “global cop”.
The biggest change in USA has been a sharp move toward an extremely centralized, federalgovernment system. This is because of the failure of state and local governments in dealing with the economic and refugee crisis. States still elect their own governors, although it is now widely understood to be a powerless and ceremonial position.
Caribbean: Warlordism has returned to some of the Carribean islands. Those that has managed to retain central rule has to face crime rates and economic growth is non-existent.
Latin America: NAFTA has disappeared. Sovereign currencies throughout Latin America have collapsed utterly and have been replaced by either the US or Canadian dollar. Foreign investment in Latin American is non-existent and infrastructure crumbles. In Mexico, the elite upper-class retains control of the cities and urban areas, while the rural areas are in the hands of warlords with their own private armies. Most of the central American states have collapsed into failed states, except for Panama, which now has an entire US army division stationed right next to the canal. Ironically, the narcotics trade has disappeared as disposable incomes dropped in the US. Elsewhere in South America, hardline governments return everywhere and the landlords have emerged as a new aristocracy.
Japan: Japan Economy never recovered from the global economic collapse, with Banking and financial systems existing in a zombie-like state. Japan, in an act of desperation, re-introduces compulsory conscription to absorb unemployed men and also aggressively remilitarizes due to unstable oil supplies. It also has formed chain of military garrisons with the countries of Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand (with their permission) ostensibly to guard its oil supply chain, but also to counterbalance the weakened but still powerful and nuclear-capable China.
China : China is now a major weapons exporters, selling arms (including missiles) worldwide to all factions and groups, even to warlords, in exchange for food and oil. But economic growth has reached zero. Slowing oil supply forces China to return to its own coal in a big way, worsening pollution
India : Malaria, Cholera have reached mega-epidemic levels . The formal economy has disappeared. The national government holds firm with the military, guarding the national borders but Religious and customary laws are now the norm in rural India and powerful families, rich businessmen, and political dynasties now form their own private militias, controlling their own fiefdoms in over large swaths of land. Feudalism and its negative effects return to rural India.
South-east asia (SEA): Economic depression, with no recovery in sight.
Political instability become the norm in unstable countries such as Burma, Cambodia and Laos. Indonesia’s military undertakes more aggressive measures to hold the islands today, while the Philippine balkanizes completely, with the currently existing private armies growing into private factions controlling different regions (in real life, there are over 50 private armies in the Philippines)
Regional trading and financial institutions have vanished. organizations like the UN and the WTO no longer exist. Different trading blocs set different standards for trade, commerce, banking and finance. Trade between trade blocs are almost non-existent.
The internet: IT growth has revered. Worldwide IT standards are now different, based on regional standard, with the US operating one for the whole of the Americas, Western Europe with one, and South-East Asia shifting in and out constantly between the standards set by China and Russia.. Interoperability between different trader blocs is near-impossible.
Food: Global food supply chains would crack. By and large, most of the developed world will escape famine but there would be much less variety in the supermarkets. Major agricultural producers would still see their populations being well-fed (like much of North America, Europe, Vietnam and Thailand.
Export embargoes will push several hundreds of millions people to mass hunger. Most countries would be able to avoid famines, though famine will still occur in a few countries. What would be certain would be mass malnutrition occurring in many parts of the world, especially the “Global South”.
Common-place Energy black-outs: Unstable supplies in hydrocarbons (oil and gas) will result in scarcity, pushing energy prices to record highs. There will be extremely frequent blackouts. Energy grids will fail due to lack of maintenance in remote area
Problems in the emerging markets: Power plants and gas stations can’t buy fuel; supermarkets can’t purchase food; banks don’t have cash in their A.T.M.s; hospitals can’t buy medicine.
Failed States: Somalia-like conditions but far more widespread. For particular vulnerability would be the Global South, such as Latin America, Africa, South Asia and some countries of South East Asia. North America (USA, Canada), UK, Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia would be hard hit but the government would remain strong as state institutions are matured. There would be massive street protests and some social unhappiness but not anywhere near Mad-Max style. There would be massive unemployment though, with stagnant wages.
Autocratic states like China and Russia would remain in power. However, the emerging markets and developing nations would be hard hit. This would be doubly true in countries where state institutions are not so mature yet. Mexico be a strange case, where the state would clearly remain in control but many of the towns and rural areas would literally function as breakaway states in all but name.
For central America, Panana would remain stable, backed by foreign financial support, especially by the US, whom would be keen to see the Panama canal remain operational. Costa Rica and Belize, which have remained much stable in terms of governance, are likely to ride through it out.
However, Africa, South Asia and smaller nations would be hard hit. Job losses, Fewer air travel (airlines cut back on routes as passengers have no interest in spending money to travel to unstable regions).
There would be less trade. A drop of 40% would be global GDP back to 2005 levels
Increasing number of fragile states
Rising instability worldwide crushes many emerging markets. Flow of credit and capital becomes non-existent. Public services disappear. Malaria and dengue fever, in particular, are widespread in SouthAmerica, sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia; In several of the least developed countries, childand infant mortality rates as well as maternal death rates have doubled, while life expectancy has fallen.
In many countries with the worst “youth bulge” problems, unemployment rate for young people between 15 and 30 years of age is well over 50 percent.
The lack of proper services within the world’ mega-cities means that giant mega-slums are now the norm, and instead of growing vertically, they grow horizontally, driven by mass migration from rural areas.
Deforestation in the Amazon, in Indonesia and Arica increases at a dramatic rate. The collapse of economic growth in Africa and Latin America causes logging and land clearing to come to a complete standstill. However, deforestation of the Amazon grows at a breakneck rate but not to human logging. Instead, climate change has caused desertification to actually happen at the centre and heart of the Congo rainforest and Amazon Basin. Within 5 years, the first man-made desert of 100,000 square kilometers finally appear at the heart of the Amazon Basin.
Economic hardships displace over 100 million people in South Asia, with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Indonesia experiencing the worst effects. Already, a number of major mega- cities in the South Asia sub-continent are functioning as independent entities in all but name
The Global Economy: The economies of the US, Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, China, Australia are declining because of non-existent export. A few countries, such as those in the Arabia Gulf (provided they managed to restart oil production) or Canada and Australia will prosper, largely due to revenue from oil or grain exports.
Much of the rest world, however, is mired in a deep recession, and urban centers in the areas have turned into slums.
Globally almost 500 million people have been displaced by war. It is not confined to Africa or the rest of the developing world. Both India and China are dealing with internal uprisings. Faced with a growing insurgency along its eastern borders and Kashmir, it also has to deal with the flow of environmental refugees from Bangladesh.
South East Asia: Thailand and Vietnam, the world’s biggest rice exporters, will still deliver rice to the rest of South East asia. However, the Philippines and Indonesia, with the lack of the vast river deltas that provide water to rice lands, will see drastic drop in rice production. Severe riots have broken out in most Indonesia and Philippine cities. Insurgents may gain effective control of all of Southern Philippines.
Both Indonesia and the Philippines will face massive food shortages, especially in the staple food. Indonesia’s government, will try to crush a major insurgency that has spread to several of its islands.
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